The 2010 US-Congressional Mid-Term Elections

Tuesday 19. January 12:00 - 14:00
Location: DGAP, Berlin

 

The Democratic Party will loose a substantive number of seats in both chambers of Congress, possibly even its majority in the House of Representatives, during the upcoming US Congressional Mid-Term Elections this November. This in return could cause President Obama to gear his political agenda more towards the centre of the US electorate and would leave him with less room to manoeuvre when it comes to achieving ambitious foreign policy objectives. The Mid-Term Elections’ outcome however is not to be seen as a forecast on the result of the US presidential elections in 2012. These were the main points made by political analyst Charles E. Cook Jr. and senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund Robert G. Liberatore during a panel discussion in the DGAP on January 19th. The event had been jointly organised by the German Marhsall Fund and the DGAP.

Political analyst Cook said that due to the huge difference between the expectations at the time of Obama’s election and the current difficult economic situation, especially members of the large group of independent voters can be expected to vote for the Republican Party in November. Cook added that in particular Obama’s focus on the health reform instead of on the improvement of the economic situation and a harsh public campaign against the president organised by the Republican Party, caused many people to distance themselves from the current government. Transatlantic expert Liberatore said that also the inclusion of bills dealing with only loosely related subjects, such as education and the environment, into the US Stimulus Bill, led to further dissatisfaction with the government.

With respect to the possible impact of the Mid-Term Elections on Obama’s agenda, Cook said that a shift towards the centre of the US political sphere is likely to happen in combination with the promise of a more pragmatic political style in the future. Liberatore declared that president Obama also might try to get into a political dispute with his own party in order to foster his image as an independent politician. Both experts nonetheless clearly stated that even a substantial loss on the side of the Democratic Party this November cannot be seen as a forecast on the 2012 US presidential elections.

Regarding the US foreign policy following the elections, Mr. Liberatore said that the government will most likely be even more restricted in its ability to bring about progress to international challenges, such as the combat against climate change and the liberalisation of trade. He added that the due to increasing economic links and the rising US economic dependency on Asian partner countries, the United States might decide to focus less on requesting the adherence to international human rights standards in these countries. Mr. Cook explained that US citizens do not vote based on foreign affairs and that politicians are not able to increase but only to loose public support due to foreign activities, which he thinks also might affect president Obama’s agenda and focus on foreign policy.

For further information on the topic please contact DGAP-expert Dr. Henning Riecke, contact: riecke@dgap.org