Stichwahl in der Ukraine: Janukowitsch versus Timoschenko

Many of the event’s participants voiced concern that the EU had lost interest in Ukraine. On the other hand Ukraine’s role as an independent geopolitical player with its own interests in dealings with Russia and the EU was stressed. The commentators agreed that Yanukovych’s proposed foreign policy is not one-sidedly pro-Russian, as previously portrayed, and that he would work to intensify Ukraine’s ties with the West, that is to the EU and NATO, although Ukraine would not apply for NATO membership under a Yanukovych presidency. One of the new presidency’s key tasks would be to improve energy relations with both Russia and the EU and so the president-elect’s announcement of the foundation of a trilateral gas consortium involving Ukrainian, Russian and Western companies was strongly welcomed.

Nevertheless, challenges remain and Ambassador Zarudna and Professor Lindner agreed that Ukraine’s current political structure means that future political confrontation between the president and the prime minister is unavoidable. As President, Yanukovych will be unable to dismiss Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister until new elections to the parliament allow him to establish a majority there. Changes to the Ukrainian constitution immediately following the Orange Revolution have created a situation in which the president is deprived of the ability to involve himself in the prime ministerial cabinet’s daily work.

Professor Lindner criticized oligarchic structures in the Ukrainian economy and underlined that the new president would have to open Ukraine to foreign investment while also supporting small and medium-sized businesses. The contentious question of whether the Ukrainian government would allow the Russian Black Sea Fleet to remain in Sevastopol beyond the expiry of the current lease in 2017 was also raised. It is widely assumed the Yanukovych will make his first international trip to China, prompted by growing interest among the Ukrainian business community in Asian markets. The panel further agreed that a repetition of the events of 2004 was unlikely given that the elections had been deemed democratic by observers.