Ukraine after the Presidential Elections

Monday 18. January 08:30 - 10:00
Location: DGAP, Berlin

 

The end of the polarization in the Ukrainian policy is reflected by the first presidential election after the Orange Revolution, so Inna Pidluska, Executive Director of Yalta European Strategy, at an Early Bird Breakfast organized by the Centre Russia/Eurasia of the DGAP after the first round of the Ukrainian presidential elections on the 17th of January 2010. On this event, organized in cooperation with the Committee on Eastern European economic relations and Deutsche Bank, spoke despite Pidluska, Prof. Rainer Lindner, Executive Director of the Committee on Eastern European economic relations and Alexander Rahr, Program director of the Centre Russia/Eurasia (DGAP). The speakers agreed that this democratic change on the top of the Ukrainian state is a positive signal for the post-Soviet space. However the challenges for the new Ukrainian president are enormous: Economic stabilization of the Ukraine, fighting corruption, reform of the energy policy and securing the public space.

The result of the election reflects the polls: With 10% Viktor Janukovich lies ahead of Prime Minister Julia Timoshenko. Both will compete in the run-off election on the 7 th of February 2010. But especially Timoshenko has the best chance to win votes of the succumb candidates. In her presentation Inna Pidluska pointed out that with 67% turnout, despite their disillusion with the Ukrainian policy, the voters show interest for this election. Furthermore she emphasized, that compare with 2004 the policy in today’s Ukraine is not anymore black and white, for or against Russia but more close to the reality. The election campaign showed that all candidates had an equal access to the media.

Prof. Rainer Lindner pointed out the de-ideologization of the current election. In the election campaign the central role played the needs of the Ukrainian people and the ability to solve the problems of the country. The main challenge for the Ukrainian president comprises in the overcoming of the economic and financial crisis, which led to a decrease of the Ukrainian export of between 40-50%. In 2011 the Ukraine has to pay back debts of 3 bn. US-Dollar. Altogether the Ukrainian state has debts of 32 bn. US-Dollar. For Mr. Lindner the consolidation of the Ukraine is a main task, which would be supported with the planed association agreement with the EU in 2010.

For Alexander Rahr there is no division of the Ukraine in pro-West or pro-Russia anymore. Prime Minister Timoshenko has negotiated well with Russia in the energy sector and she emphasized the meaning of relations with Russia. But because of the constitution the dualistic competition between the Prime Minister and the President will persist. Therefore the power competition will continue, which is negative for the future of the country. Finally Mr. Lindner pointed out, that the EU-accession perspective is still the main driver for reforms in the Ukraine.